We have both rain and shine in the forecast for this weekend. Temperatures will be warmer than average, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely through Saturday night. While most places will get at least a little rain, there will be plenty of “dry time” between the scattered thunderstorms. The overall severe threat is low, but one or two strong to severe storms will be possible, especially on Saturday into Saturday night. Rainfall amounts will depend on where thunderstorms develop. Our best chance of rain will be late Saturday into Saturday night with locally heavy rainfall amounts of a quarter to a half inch or more possible. Storms will exit the region late Saturday night, leaving us with dry, pleasant weather for the first part of next week. Much cooler, fall like weather is likely by late next week.

The rest of this afternoon will be mostly cloudy, with scattered showers and thundershowers likely. An additional tenth of an inch or more of rain will be possible in some locations. Showers will end and we could see a little sunshine later this afternoon into this evening. Temperatures will hover in the low to mid 70s through much of the day. Places that do get a little sun could see temps climb into the mid to upper 70s. Tonight will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. A little patchy fog will be possible toward morning, with temps dropping into the low to mid 60s by daybreak Saturday.

Saturday will be partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible off and on throughout the day. Our best chance of thunderstorms will come late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. As I mentioned earlier, the severe threat is low, but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible. Hail and straight line wind gusts will be the main threats. Heavier rainfall amounts of a quarter to a half inch or more will be possible with some of the storms that develop late Saturday and Saturday night. Not everyone will get heavy rain. Everything will depend on where thunderstorms develop. High Saturday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Thunderstorms will exit the region late Saturday night.

Sunday will be partly cloudy and pleasant with highs in the upper 70s. Warm, dry weather will continue into the first part of next week, with highs climbing into the 80s on Monday and Tuesday.

Our long range forecast models are hinting at an abrupt shift to more fall like weather by mid to late next week. By next Thursday and Friday, high temperatures will likely drop into the low 60s. There’s still some uncertainty in regards to the timing and magnitude of the cooldown, but we’re still almost a week away from that. We will be watching trends closely and will have updates as we get closer.

The wind will die down and the extreme humidity will stay away, but temperatures will remain above average as we head into the last half of the week. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday night into early Friday, but our best chance of rain will be late Saturday and Saturday night. Next week will be mostly dry and a bit cooler with highs in the 80s.

The rest of today will be sunny and breezy with highs in the upper 80s and northwesterly wind gusts to 35 mph. While it is still warm, it is quite a bit more comfortable than yesterday. Dew points this afternoon are in the upper 50s, compared to the sweltering mid 70s yesterday. Tonight will be mostly clear with temperatures dropping into the mid 60s by daybreak Thursday.

Thursday will be a very pleasant day. Mostly sunny, not as windy and even less humid, with highs climbing back into the upper 80s.

Heat and humidity will return for Friday and that could fuel a few isolated thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday morning and again late Friday into Friday night. These storms will be very random and isolated. Friday will be sunny, warm and humid with highs back in the low to mid 90s.

Our best chance for some decent, measurable rain will come as a cold front moves across our region on Saturday and Saturday night. Rainfall amounts and the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will depend on the timing of the front. As of right now, it looks as though the best chance for heavy rain and isolated severe storms will be to our south and east. We’re still a few days away, however, so that could change. As of right now, I’d say there’s about a 50/50 shot that any random location across southern Minnesota could get a thunderstorm that produces a quarter inch of rain, with heavier amounts likely south of I-90 and east of I-35. Again, it’s early and that could change. We will have updates as we get closer to the weekend.

Long range models continue to hint that next week will be pleasant but mostly dry. While a few random, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible , especially on Tuesday, we will likely be mostly dry with highs, generally, in the 80s through most of next week.