Last week was really nice… And uneventful. Not what you would typically expect on the plains in January. This week will look and feel a bit more like it’s supposed to this time of year. We will start mild, but it won’t take long for temperatures to go on a bit of a roller coaster ride. By the end of the week the color of the landscape could change from brown to white.

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for much of Central and Northern South Dakota through noon today. Visibility has dropped to less than 1/4 mile across the advisory area. With temperatures well below freezing, the fog is also frosting the roads making them very slippery. Give yourself plenty of extra time to get where you’re going this morning, keep headlights on low beam and be sure to look twice, even three times at intersections. Visibility will gradually improve later this morning or early this afternoon.

Today will be mostly cloudy but mild. High temps will range from the low to mid 30s in the South to the mid 20s in the North. Clouds will decrease tonight. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with warmer high temps in the mid to upper 30s. Parts of Central South Dakota will reach the low 40s tomorrow afternoon.

A cold front will blast across the plains late tomorrow and tomorrow night. While I don’t expect much precipitation with the front, it will bring in enough cold air to drop temperatures below average for the first time in about a week. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the low 20s.

We are closely monitoring a system that could bring snow to much of the region Friday into Saturday. It’s too early to get specific with amounts, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see several inches of snow in some places. In addition to the snow, strong wind could create areas of blowing snow. Stay tuned for updates. As we get closer, we’ll get a better grasp on where this thing will track and that will allow us to get more specific with forecast snow amounts. For now, just be aware that snow and blowing snow will likely impact travel across parts of our region Friday and Saturday.

One more thing… After the snow, it’s REALLY going to feel like January. By Saturday and Sunday high temperatures will only reach the single digits to low teens with lows dropping well below zero.

A powerful winter storm system will impact most of our region beginning today and continuing through tomorrow and into Friday. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for a large portion of Central and Eastern South Dakota, Central and Northern Minnesota, Central Nebraska and Eastern North Dakota beginning today and continuing into Friday. In the Sioux Falls Area, a Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect At noon Thursday and continue through noon Friday.

There are a lot of different parts of the system. The Sioux Falls area will likely get more rain than snow. While we could still get 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulation across the Sioux Falls area, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will also be possible across extreme Southeastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota and Northwestern Iowa.

Heavy snow north and west of Sioux Falls
This system will come in a couple of waves. The first will bring heavy snow to much central and northern South Dakota today and tonight. After a small break in the snowfall, the second more powerful wave of energy will bring more heavy snow with strong 30 to 40+ mph wind gusts.

Snowfall of 12 to 15 inches or more will be possible from Watertown to Aberdeen southwest to Mitchell, Chamberlain and Winner. The wind should hold to about 10 to 20 mph through the day today, but will gradually increase across Central South Dakota tonight and across the rest of the region during the day tomorrow. strong Northerly wind gusts of 30 to 40+ mph will create blowing snow and likely blizzard conditions tomorrow through tomorrow night into Friday morning.

Rain and snow in the Sioux Falls area
There will be enough warm air wrapped into the southern part of the system that Sioux Falls will actually get more rain than snow. As I mentioned above, there could be 2 or more inches of liquid precipitation that falls with this storm.

Sioux Falls will likely get some light snow by mid to late morning with an inch or so possible across parts of the Sioux Falls area by this afternoon. That snow will mix with and then change to rain later today as warmer air wraps into this system. Rain will continue through tonight into tomorrow morning. Rain will change back to snow tomorrow afternoon with another inch or two possible by late tomorrow afternoon. Snow will then continue tomorrow night into Friday which will bring total snow accumulation amounts to between 3 and 5 inches for the Sioux Falls area.

By tomorrow afternoon, strong northerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will kick in and that will create blowing snow late tomorrow, tomorrow night into Friday.

If you are in the Sioux Falls/Tri-State area, monitor the forecast closely. The current forecast is the most likely scenario, but even a subtle shift in the storm track or temperatures that are a degree or two cooler than expected could result in a significant change in what actually happens.

Conditions will improve on Friday
Snow will end and conditions will improve throughout the day Friday. The weekend ahead will be dry with much colder temperatures.

If you are going to be traveling this weekend, Christmas Eve or Christmas Day, it’ll be mostly smooth sailing with just a few little bumps in the road along the way. Enjoy that, because it looks like there might be a giant pothole developing on that road just after Christmas.

Our first minor travel inconvenience is already here. It is foggy this morning and with temperatures below freezing, roads and surfaces have become frosty. After the fog dissipates later this morning, it will become partly cloudy with high temps ranging from the mid to upper 30s in Sioux Falls and along and east of the James Valley, to the mid 40s across Central South Dakota.

A fairly weak, fast-moving system will bring scattered light rain and snow to Northwestern and Central South Dakota later this afternoon. Light snow will move across Northern South Dakota this evening. Amounts will be light, but locations along and north of US Highway 14 (Pierre to Huron to Brookings to Marshall) could get just enough light snow to make roads a bit slippery.

The weather will be relatively low key through the rest of the weekend and the holiday. Saturday and Sunday will be partly to mostly cloudy with above average high temperatures in the 30s. A few places could get a little light snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with slightly cooler but still above average high temps in the upper 20s to low 30s.

It is looking more and more likely that a winter storm will impact part of or all of our region just after Christmas. After looking at some of the latest data this morning, I’m thinking that we will start to see rain or snow develop across parts of our region by Wednesday morning with snow and wind possible through Wednesday, Wednesday night and much of Thursday. At this point there are a number of possible scenarios ranging from just a nuisance snowfall to a significant snow and wind event that has a major impact on travel across the region.

Please keep in mind that this thing is six days away and it’s still WAY too early to start changing holiday plans, etc. The best thing to do at this point is simply stay weather aware. Know that a winter storm is possible across parts of our region just after Christmas. Check the forecast and check it often throughout the holiday weekend, there will be plenty of changes and updates as this storm develops. And pack a winter survival kit and throw some extra blankets, old coats, etc in the trunk just in case. Phil, Sam and I will be monitoring this storm closely and will have the very latest as it develops.

The sun will finally claw its way out from behind the clouds today, but it’s not going to warm us up much. Temperatures will head back into the upper 20s to low 30s this afternoon, which is similar to where they were yesterday and just slightly below average for this time of year.

The sun is here to stay, but the “warm” temperatures are not. Another blast of cold, Arctic air will arrive tonight and hang around through most of the weekend. (And yes, I put warm in quotes. Let’s face it, 29 degrees isn’t warm, but it’s as good as it’s gonna get this week.)

As the cold arrives, scattered clouds and a few flurries will be possible in the North this afternoon and in Sioux Falls and across the South tonight. The wind will also increase to about 15 to 25 mph later today and tonight as the front rolls through.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and cold. High temps will range from the mid teens in Sioux Falls to the low 20s across Central South Dakota. On Friday morning, temperatures will drop to around zero and then slowly warm back into the 20s through the weekend and early next week. There will be plenty of sunshine through the weekend and most of next week, just not a lot of heat. Temperatures should get back to about average by next Tuesday or Wednesday.